Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kit
Gentlemen:toggle quoted messageShow quoted text
When I took a managerial futuristics course about 20 years ago we took a hard look at population dynamics.
Think about this:
Just after WWII a large bolus of babies were born. That bolus caused a housing boom. When that bolus hit
college age new colleges sprouted, old colleges adapted their programs, community colleges sprung up... all to acomodate
the large new market in people. All sorts of other organizations tapped into that market (eg. EAA). That
bolus is now 60ish. Expect the market in funerals/cemetaries and retirement to heat up. Its all about the numbers.
As the post war birth rate tailed off less people will cause colleges to shrink to survive, EAA will shrink.
Aviation activities will shrink (new kits, radios, equipment, even pilot starts). Industries which have tooled
up will have to tool down to survive. Airlines are already seeing pilot numbers shrinking and are lowering
standards (pilot hours) to capture a shrinking population. Its a good time to seek an airline job.
The kitplane market will decline but slowly enough to be difficult to notice since businesses will
be scrambling to squeeze more juice out of the market (eg. a new improved Q2 kit?).
Its all about the numbers AND its all about the cycle of life.
From: Armilite@aol.com [Q-LIST] <Q-LIST@yahoogroups.com>
To: Q-LIST <Q-LIST@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Aug 11, 2015 3:32 am
Subject: [Q-LIST] Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kit
While I do agree, some young people have more distractions than ever today, many people still have an interest in Flying. Just look at how the RC Market has grown 600% in the last 20 years. Like I said, People can't Buy what they can't See, Feel, Look at, Sit in, or maybe even test fly, etc.
You don't even have many people actively selling any New Plan Designs, or even Updated Old Plan Designs, today. This Group of many at one time, hasn't even put together, and updated set of Plans after 30+ years. If it wasn't for these different Groups that focused on some of these Planes/Plans, they would have flopped many many years ago, account the Inventor/Designer went on to their next big idea, to sell even more plans, and never really supported them. Some Companies went Bank Rupp, Some promised and engine that would work with their kit that never developed, or a kit, that was never developed, and delivered. Most of these Kitplane Manufactures don't even come to the few Big Air Shows these days, let alone have a Booth at any local area events. Every State has a State Fair, ever see one Kitplane Manufacture Booth? Many States have large Car, Truck, Sled, Boat, ATV, Motor Cycle, shows, etc., ever see a Kitplane Manufacture Booth at one. Some of these events draw 100,000+ People a day through them.
You have Free Media today, Craigslist, YouTube, and almost Free, Web Pages, that covers the World! Ever see a Kitplane Manufacture Post an AD, out of the 350 left today in the World on these Free Media? I have at least (3) Manufactures in IOWA, and have never seen (1) AD, or Booth, at any event locally. The State Fair last's for like 11+ days. I travel to other States to Car Shows(4000-12,000 Cars), to Sled/ATV/Motorcycle events, and have never seen (1) Kitplane Booth. I see booths for many other products, non related to the events at hand. It's called Marketing!
I do see this trend in building Hotrods also, most people are over 40 today at the Car/Truck shows. Let me see, where did I spend my money way back then, I bought my first New Car, age 22 in 1979. Before that, I drove a 595hp 70 Camaro SS 402 Big Block. I Married at age 20. Guessing, a $9000 Q2 Kit in 1980, is like $26,000 in 2015 dollars. You can plug in what you paid for your kit.
New Station Wagon
Built My New House Myself $80,000
86 Blazer New
88 Camaro and 88 Impala New
90 Suburban New $18,000
97 Crownline New $28,000
2001 Suburban New $38,000
Kawasaki 750 New $8,000
Kawasaki 1600 New $12,000
Kawasaki Vulcan 1700 New $14,000
Used T-Bird I $5,200
So my main interest wasn't in Flying/Building either back then, as an 18-30 year old kid. I flew with other people, looked at many used planes, visited many Kitplane Manufactures, but never bought a plane, till I was almost 53. I visited the Terria Factory in Clear Lake, IA soon after being married in 1977. Now I made $50,000 in 1980 on the CN&W Railroad, and the wife also worked, so I could afford it, I just never had the Time/Space to build one, on call 24/7. Some times for some People, it's not having the Money, or the Space, or the Time, to build one. Many, do lack the Skills to finish one also. Same with hotrods that have been sitting for 20+ years in the garage. These young people face the same things, only things cost a lot more today. There is probably a lack of EAA Chapters/Groups these days also. Many other old Type Groups, have gotten smaller also.
I still believe, if you Make any Good Product, and Market it right, you can sell it, if not over Priced for the Global Market!
You know what a New 582/O-200 Cost today. You have a Material Sheet Needed for these Q1/Q2 Kit's, update that material lists Prices from Aircraft Spruce, and then put your Hours/Time to build one from just the plans. What's a New Q1/Q200 Cost today to build from just the Plans? Who built one the fastest, lowest Hours, Q1/Q2?
Reality, in what a Mold Really Cost to make, and what they say(Manufacture), is two different things. There was a guy years ago, building a Carbon Fiber Q1 from Molds for himself. He told me then, (2) men could Vacuum Bag a Q1 Airframe in an 8hr day with molds. He was building the Molds at work, using their CNC equipment on his off time. Never heard if he got it all done. Point is, that's 52 weeks x 5 days = 260 Airframes possible with just (2) People. Carbon is nice Light, Strong, stuff, but cost 4 times what fiberglass does, and is not needed for these Q1/Q2 Airframes. So almost all, Airframe Manufactures buy their Engines, Gear Drives, Electronic's, Nut's & Bolt's & Cables, etc, so the Base Airframe is all that's needed to really make one. The rest is Ordering Pre-made Parts, and Assembly, and Packing. They just Buy the other stuff to make a complete assembly/kit.
Just My Opinion
Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kits
Wed Aug 5, 2015 8:58 am (PDT) . Posted by:
Glad to see Jim is back and still able to fire up the group!
Hope the recovery is going well.
I think the biggest difference to overcome since 30-40 years ago is the change the way people think now.
Remember 40 years ago the WWII veteran crowd was in their 40's and 50's so still in the market for a project. On the other end of the spectrum I had just graduated from high school. Most my age (at that time) were still heavily influenced by the heady days of the Apollo missions and optimistic that anything was possible. No personal computers yet existed, and no one was tell us that the earth was dying and we were responsible and guilty for any and everything bad that was happening.
The influences, sensibilities, motivations, distractions, attention spans, etc. etc. are all different now, so I am not sure that any kit manufacturer has the same fertile market that existed in the '80' s, regardless of design. I think the Van's market is running hard just to capture the old guys like me. I the last several years, It is very rare to find an active homebuilder younger than 50 (EAA chapter group projects excluded). I used to hang around the airport as a kid for the entertainment value, and that was common. Now it seems like you need a military security clearance for that.
On the positive side. I saw two Q-200 projects this week, while on vacation. Mike Bergen gave me a tour of his plane yesterday, and Imraan showed me his project on Sunday afternoon. Mike's is close enough to get flying before too long and Imraan's has a re-tooled engine that is running now, so will get airborne soon.. Great fun to see those and I learned some new things. Back to my project when I get back from vacation. I am still positive about my old old project