Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kit

Rich Gillen

If you base your Future Business needs on 20 year old data/thinking, your probably Doomed to begin with. They also was only looking at the USA Pop for that data. There is 225 other Countries in this Big World today, they say about 8 Billion People, and these Manufactures can't sell all the Aircraft they can probably make (50-150) in a year. I say B-S.
Just the USA Population alone has grown by 1-2% almost every year since 1911.
Pop 1911 =   93,863,000
Pop 2010 = 310,232,863
Pop 2015 = 321,230,000
"In the year 1900 the World Population was 1.6 billion. The world population has grown tremendously over the past two thousand years. In 1999, the world population passed the six billion mark." That was 16 years ago fellows.
The United States Census Bureau estimates that the world population exceeded 7 billion on March 12, 2012. According to a separate estimate by the United Nations Population Fund, it reached this milestone on October 31, 2011.

Current World Population

As of July 6, 2015, the United States has a total resident population of 321,230,000, making it the third most populous country in the world.
The EAA has, and will Shrink, as the old time hard core supporters die off, account they have forgotten their Roots, the home built/Kitplane! I stopped supporting them 12+ years ago, when I saw the writing on the wall back then. They even wanted to close the Ultralight Area at Oshkosh just a few years ago. As I did also with the NRA, when they caved into the Assault Rifle Bill, and also stopped supporting the Machine Gun, and Suppressor People.
No, these Manufactures will have to Open New Markets/Sales around the World, if they want to survive. High CEO/Managers Salaries is what is killing a lot of USA Companies today, besides just their poor Management skills!
The World Kitplane Market has dropped to over half, what it was 25 years ago! From 750+ per Kitplane Mag, in the World to about 350 today. I suggest you go visit 4-5 of these different Kitplane Manufactures left today, then you will see, Why, they will probably not be around in 10-15 years also. Vans (RV Line) is probably one of the most profitable Kitplane Manufactures in the World, close to 8000 built, I also believe the M-Square Breeze is also around the 7000 mark. Look at their Web Pages, compared to some of these other manufactures, still in Business, for now.
Big Airlines here, seek out Military Pilots, who already have 3000-3500hrs of Flying Time. Since they raised the age to 65, less are retiring. After 911, Airline Employee's all took a Pay Cut, except Management! Pilot's took the biggest Pay Cut. Today 2015, my younger brother has finally got back what he lost after 911, with a small Pay Raise. He fly's for United.
So how ever you want to crunch these Numbers, if you want to Sell Something, first you have to make a good Product, then Price it Right, then Market it right, and offer Good Service, if you want to sell it!
You do have to shop around (World) also, for All of your Parts to make anything (Airframe Kit). Just the other day, I looked at some Prices here(USA) for a Rotax 6206 Crank Bearings $55 each + Shipping. I can order it for $6 each in a (25) pack with Free Shipping from China. The Bearings are made in Germany(FAG) best Crank Bearings you can use. Each Crank use's (6) Bearings total, (4) 6206 and (2) 6207. Just 4 (6206) $55 x 4 = $220, $6 x 4 = $24. $24 vs $220. So you can see, a little shopping for just Parts can save you money.
Different Rotax Crank Bearings used.
6205 = $47.50
6206 = $55.00
6207 = $70.00
6306 = $65.00
Just My Opinion
Rich Gillen


Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kit

Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:20 am (PDT) . Posted by:

When I took a managerial futuristics course about 20 years ago we took a hard look at population dynamics.
Think about this:
Just after WWII a large bolus of babies were born. That bolus caused a housing boom. When that bolus hit
college age new colleges sprouted, old colleges adapted their programs, community colleges sprung up... all to acomodate
the large new market in people. All sorts of other organizations tapped into that market (eg. EAA). That
bolus is now 60ish. Expect the market in funerals/cemetaries and retirement to heat up. Its all about the numbers.
As the post war birth rate tailed off less people will cause colleges to shrink to survive, EAA will shrink.
Aviation activities will shrink (new kits, radios, equipment, even pilot starts). Industries which have tooled
up will have to tool down to survive. Airlines are already seeing pilot numbers shrinking and are lowering
standards (pilot hours) to capture a shrinking population. Its a good time to seek an airline job.
The kitplane market will decline but slowly enough to be difficult to notice since businesses will
be scrambling to squeeze more juice out of the market (eg. a new improved Q2 kit?).
Its all about the numbers AND its all about the cycle of life.

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