Date
1 - 10 of 10
What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kit
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Rich Gillen
Jay:
While I do agree, some young people have more distractions than ever today,
many people still have an interest in Flying. Just look at how the RC Market has
grown 600% in the last 20 years. Like I said, People can't Buy what they can't
See, Feel, Look at, Sit in, or maybe even test fly, etc.
You don't even have many people actively selling any New Plan Designs,
or even Updated Old Plan Designs, today. This Group of many at one time, hasn't
even put together, and updated set of Plans after 30+ years. If it wasn't for
these different Groups that focused on some of these Planes/Plans, they would
have flopped many many years ago, account the Inventor/Designer went on to their
next big idea, to sell even more plans, and never really supported them. Some
Companies went Bank Rupp, Some promised and engine that would work with their
kit that never developed, or a kit, that was never developed, and delivered.
Most of these Kitplane Manufactures don't even come to the few Big Air Shows
these days, let alone have a Booth at any local area events. Every State has a
State Fair, ever see one Kitplane Manufacture Booth? Many States have large Car,
Truck, Sled, Boat, ATV, Motor Cycle, shows, etc., ever see a Kitplane
Manufacture Booth at one. Some of these events draw 100,000+ People a day
through them.
You have Free Media today, Craigslist, YouTube, and almost Free, Web Pages,
that covers the World! Ever see a Kitplane Manufacture Post an AD, out of the
350 left today in the World on these Free Media? I have at least (3)
Manufactures in IOWA, and have never seen (1) AD, or Booth, at any event
locally. The State Fair last's for like 11+ days. I travel to other States
to Car Shows(4000-12,000 Cars), to Sled/ATV/Motorcycle events, and have never
seen (1) Kitplane Booth. I see booths for many other products, non related to
the events at hand. It's called Marketing!
I do see this trend in building Hotrods also, most people are over 40 today
at the Car/Truck shows. Let me see, where did I spend my money way back
then, I bought my first New Car, age 22 in 1979. Before that, I drove a 595hp 70
Camaro SS 402 Big Block. I Married at age 20. Guessing, a $9000 Q2 Kit in
1980, is like $26,000 in 2015 dollars. You can plug in what you paid for your
kit.
So my main interest wasn't in Flying/Building either back then, as an 18-30
year old kid. I flew with other people, looked at many used planes, visited many
Kitplane Manufactures, but never bought a plane, till I was almost 53. I visited
the Terria Factory in Clear Lake, IA soon after being married in 1977. Now I
made $50,000 in 1980 on the CN&W Railroad, and the wife also worked, so I
could afford it, I just never had the Time/Space to build one, on call 24/7.
Some times for some People, it's not having the Money, or the Space, or the
Time, to build one. Many, do lack the Skills to finish one also. Same with
hotrods that have been sitting for 20+ years in the garage. These young people
face the same things, only things cost a lot more today. There is probably a
lack of EAA Chapters/Groups these days also. Many other old Type Groups, have
gotten smaller also.
I still believe, if you Make any Good Product, and Market it right, you can
sell it, if not over Priced for the Global Market!
You know what a New 582/O-200 Cost today. You have a Material Sheet
Needed for these Q1/Q2 Kit's, update that material lists Prices from
Aircraft Spruce, and then put your Hours/Time to build one from just the plans.
What's a New Q1/Q200 Cost today to build from just the Plans? Who built one the
fastest, lowest Hours, Q1/Q2?
Reality, in what a Mold Really Cost to make, and what they
say(Manufacture), is two different things. There was a guy years ago, building a
Carbon Fiber Q1 from Molds for himself. He told me then, (2) men could Vacuum
Bag a Q1 Airframe in an 8hr day with molds. He was building the Molds at work,
using their CNC equipment on his off time. Never heard if he got it all done.
Point is, that's 52 weeks x 5 days = 260 Airframes possible with just (2)
People. Carbon is nice Light, Strong, stuff, but cost 4 times what fiberglass
does, and is not needed for these Q1/Q2 Airframes. So almost all, Airframe
Manufactures buy their Engines, Gear Drives, Electronic's, Nut's & Bolt's
& Cables, etc, so the Base Airframe is all that's needed to really make one.
The rest is Ordering Pre-made Parts, and Assembly, and Packing. They just Buy
the other stuff to make a complete assembly/kit.
Just My Opinion
Rich Gillen
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Robert Gelinas
Hi: First time responding, but I've been lurking for a while.
I think one aspect is not a lack of interest, but far more accessibility to easier kits with more popular options. Some kits are flight ready within close to 500 hours and have a more traditional look and feel. People are more likely to complete a project that progresses quickly (how many partial Q builds have there been?). There's also a sense of trusting pre-cut and punched aluminum over trusting the less 'digital' approach of hand-layed glass, and I imagine I'm not the only one. My personal fear is in-flight delam, or over doping and making it too heavy: Wood and metal are more predictable materials (especially considering my current glassing skills): Riveting or bolting seem easier than doing a decent layup. That said, the Q series is a wonderfully unique design, and I love the flexibility of design that composites give. Where else could you get close to 100 mpg (original Quickie specs)? I know the Q2 and Q200 lack those kind of numbers, but they fulfill a different mission. I think the question is if a kit could cut build times down to 500-700 hours, would it increase interest? As long as it meets the 51% rule, and qualifies for Sport pilots, it might. If not, it may only be kept alive by the Build It From The Ground Up, Mostly Plan Driven crowd (such as those in this group). -Robert Ex-owner 1966 Piper Cherokee C Sent from my android device.
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JMasal@...
Gentlemen:
toggle quoted messageShow quoted text
When I took a managerial futuristics course about 20 years ago we took a hard look at population dynamics. Think about this: Just after WWII a large bolus of babies were born. That bolus caused a housing boom. When that bolus hit college age new colleges sprouted, old colleges adapted their programs, community colleges sprung up... all to acomodate the large new market in people. All sorts of other organizations tapped into that market (eg. EAA). That bolus is now 60ish. Expect the market in funerals/cemetaries and retirement to heat up. Its all about the numbers. As the post war birth rate tailed off less people will cause colleges to shrink to survive, EAA will shrink. Aviation activities will shrink (new kits, radios, equipment, even pilot starts). Industries which have tooled up will have to tool down to survive. Airlines are already seeing pilot numbers shrinking and are lowering standards (pilot hours) to capture a shrinking population. Its a good time to seek an airline job. The kitplane market will decline but slowly enough to be difficult to notice since businesses will be scrambling to squeeze more juice out of the market (eg. a new improved Q2 kit?). Its all about the numbers AND its all about the cycle of life.
-----Original Message-----
From: Armilite@... [Q-LIST] <Q-LIST@...> To: Q-LIST <Q-LIST@...> Sent: Tue, Aug 11, 2015 3:32 am Subject: [Q-LIST] Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kit Jay: While I do agree, some young people have more distractions than ever today, many people still have an interest in Flying. Just look at how the RC Market has grown 600% in the last 20 years. Like I said, People can't Buy what they can't See, Feel, Look at, Sit in, or maybe even test fly, etc. You don't even have many people actively selling any New Plan Designs, or even Updated Old Plan Designs, today. This Group of many at one time, hasn't even put together, and updated set of Plans after 30+ years. If it wasn't for these different Groups that focused on some of these Planes/Plans, they would have flopped many many years ago, account the Inventor/Designer went on to their next big idea, to sell even more plans, and never really supported them. Some Companies went Bank Rupp, Some promised and engine that would work with their kit that never developed, or a kit, that was never developed, and delivered. Most of these Kitplane Manufactures don't even come to the few Big Air Shows these days, let alone have a Booth at any local area events. Every State has a State Fair, ever see one Kitplane Manufacture Booth? Many States have large Car, Truck, Sled, Boat, ATV, Motor Cycle, shows, etc., ever see a Kitplane Manufacture Booth at one. Some of these events draw 100,000+ People a day through them. You have Free Media today, Craigslist, YouTube, and almost Free, Web Pages, that covers the World! Ever see a Kitplane Manufacture Post an AD, out of the 350 left today in the World on these Free Media? I have at least (3) Manufactures in IOWA, and have never seen (1) AD, or Booth, at any event locally. The State Fair last's for like 11+ days. I travel to other States to Car Shows(4000-12,000 Cars), to Sled/ATV/Motorcycle events, and have never seen (1) Kitplane Booth. I see booths for many other products, non related to the events at hand. It's called Marketing! I do see this trend in building Hotrods also, most people are over 40 today at the Car/Truck shows. Let me see, where did I spend my money way back then, I bought my first New Car, age 22 in 1979. Before that, I drove a 595hp 70 Camaro SS 402 Big Block. I Married at age 20. Guessing, a $9000 Q2 Kit in 1980, is like $26,000 in 2015 dollars. You can plug in what you paid for your kit. http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=9000&year1=1980&year2=2015 22 New Station Wagon 23 24 25 Built My New House Myself $80,000 26 27 28 29 86 Blazer New 30 31 88 Camaro and 88 Impala New 32 33 90 Suburban New $18,000 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 97 Crownline New $28,000 41 42 43 44 2001 Suburban New $38,000 45 46 47 48 Kawasaki 750 New $8,000 49 Kawasaki 1600 New $12,000 50 51 52 Kawasaki Vulcan 1700 New $14,000 53 Used T-Bird I $5,200 54 55 56 57 58 So my main interest wasn't in Flying/Building either back then, as an 18-30 year old kid. I flew with other people, looked at many used planes, visited many Kitplane Manufactures, but never bought a plane, till I was almost 53. I visited the Terria Factory in Clear Lake, IA soon after being married in 1977. Now I made $50,000 in 1980 on the CN&W Railroad, and the wife also worked, so I could afford it, I just never had the Time/Space to build one, on call 24/7. Some times for some People, it's not having the Money, or the Space, or the Time, to build one. Many, do lack the Skills to finish one also. Same with hotrods that have been sitting for 20+ years in the garage. These young people face the same things, only things cost a lot more today. There is probably a lack of EAA Chapters/Groups these days also. Many other old Type Groups, have gotten smaller also. I still believe, if you Make any Good Product, and Market it right, you can sell it, if not over Priced for the Global Market! You know what a New 582/O-200 Cost today. You have a Material Sheet Needed for these Q1/Q2 Kit's, update that material lists Prices from Aircraft Spruce, and then put your Hours/Time to build one from just the plans. What's a New Q1/Q200 Cost today to build from just the Plans? Who built one the fastest, lowest Hours, Q1/Q2? Reality, in what a Mold Really Cost to make, and what they say(Manufacture), is two different things. There was a guy years ago, building a Carbon Fiber Q1 from Molds for himself. He told me then, (2) men could Vacuum Bag a Q1 Airframe in an 8hr day with molds. He was building the Molds at work, using their CNC equipment on his off time. Never heard if he got it all done. Point is, that's 52 weeks x 5 days = 260 Airframes possible with just (2) People. Carbon is nice Light, Strong, stuff, but cost 4 times what fiberglass does, and is not needed for these Q1/Q2 Airframes. So almost all, Airframe Manufactures buy their Engines, Gear Drives, Electronic's, Nut's & Bolt's & Cables, etc, so the Base Airframe is all that's needed to really make one. The rest is Ordering Pre-made Parts, and Assembly, and Packing. They just Buy the other stuff to make a complete assembly/kit. Just My Opinion Rich Gillen =============================================================================== 1c Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kits Wed Aug 5, 2015 8:58 am (PDT) . Posted by: jay_scheevel Glad to see Jim is back and still able to fire up the group! Hope the recovery is going well. I think the biggest difference to overcome since 30-40 years ago is the change the way people think now. Remember 40 years ago the WWII veteran crowd was in their 40's and 50's so still in the market for a project. On the other end of the spectrum I had just graduated from high school. Most my age (at that time) were still heavily influenced by the heady days of the Apollo missions and optimistic that anything was possible. No personal computers yet existed, and no one was tell us that the earth was dying and we were responsible and guilty for any and everything bad that was happening. The influences, sensibilities, motivations, distractions, attention spans, etc. etc. are all different now, so I am not sure that any kit manufacturer has the same fertile market that existed in the '80' s, regardless of design. I think the Van's market is running hard just to capture the old guys like me. I the last several years, It is very rare to find an active homebuilder younger than 50 (EAA chapter group projects excluded). I used to hang around the airport as a kid for the entertainment value, and that was common. Now it seems like you need a military security clearance for that. On the positive side. I saw two Q-200 projects this week, while on vacation. Mike Bergen gave me a tour of his plane yesterday, and Imraan showed me his project on Sunday afternoon. Mike's is close enough to get flying before too long and Imraan's has a re-tooled engine that is running now, so will get airborne soon.. Great fun to see those and I learned some new things. Back to my project when I get back from vacation. I am still positive about my old old project Cheers, Jay
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JMasal@...
Gelinas You are correct. If a company wants to capture more of a shrinking market, cutting build
toggle quoted messageShow quoted text
times will be the strategy.
Another point: Just like the dream of zipping around in your personally built craft is mostly in your head. your
fear of flight delam or poor glassing skills is mostly in your head. I worried too but there are plenty of
us who have learned the skills and will share knowledge... but they will not just walk into your front
door... YOU will have to walk into THEIR front door.
Fiberglass airplanes are not falling out of the sky like raindrops... unless built by a cocky moron who avoids seeking help.
j.
-----Original Message----- From: Robert Gelinas rggelinas@... [Q-LIST] To: Q-LIST Sent: Tue, Aug 11, 2015 8:49 am Subject: [Q-LIST] Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kit Hi: First time responding, but I've been lurking for a while.
I think one aspect is not a lack of interest, but far more accessibility to easier kits with more popular options. Some kits are flight ready within close to 500 hours and have a more traditional look and feel. People are more likely to complete a project that progresses quickly (how many partial Q builds have there been?). There's also a sense of trusting pre-cut and punched aluminum over trusting the less 'digital' approach of hand-layed glass, and I imagine I'm not the only one. My personal fear is in-flight delam, or over doping and making it too heavy: Wood and metal are more predictable materials (especially considering my current glassing skills): Riveting or bolting seem easier than doing a decent layup. That said, the Q series is a wonderfully unique design, and I love the flexibility of design that composites give. Where else could you get close to 100 mpg (original Quickie specs)? I know the Q2 and Q200 lack those kind of numbers, but they fulfill a different mission. I think the question is if a kit could cut build times down to 500-700 hours, would it increase interest? As long as it meets the 51% rule, and qualifies for Sport pilots, it might. If not, it may only be kept alive by the Build It From The Ground Up, Mostly Plan Driven crowd (such as those in this group). -Robert Ex-owner 1966 Piper Cherokee C Sent from my android device.
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Rich Gillen
Robert:
Your right in many people still having an interest in flying, but the
Manufactures don't do there job in Designing, Making, and Marketing their
Products, or even give Good Service to their Customers.
These two planes in question(Q1/Q2) were Designed to fit only 50% of the
World Market. Like I said, Planes are for Hauling People & Bags! Even Burt
Rutan didn't get it right till he designed the Long Eze, Front Seat was for a
6'-6" 350lbs Pilot, then at least 95% of the World Market would fit in it. Even
most small Commerical made Aircraft were designed for a 5'-8" 160lb Pilot
(Military Spec's for 18yr old Pilot), and most of them Planes are under powered
with 60-100hp engines. Basically (2) 6'-6" 200lb guys can't fly in a
C150 with a Full Fuel Tank for example. For actual cross country travel with
bags and Full Fuel, a 2 seater is a one seater, a 4 seater is a two seater, for
most people. The average weight of an American Male (18yrs - 25yrs) today is
185lbs. I was 6' 197lbs for football in 10th, 11th, 12th, grade. At 26 I
was 205lbs.
But your correct, they need to make Kits that can be completed in less the
500hrs. People today have to many other distractions. They still face the Time
needed, the Money needed, and the Space needed.
Even working at just (10hrs a week) a 500hr kit/10 = 50 weeks(1 year),
(10hrs a week) 700hr kit/10 = 70 weeks(1.5 years), etc.
From the Plans Build Kit a 1500hr/10 = 150 weeks (3 years), 2000hr/10
= 200 weeks(4years), 2500hr/10 = 250 weeks (5 years), 3000hr/10 = 300 weeks (6
years), 3500hr/10 =350 weeks (7 years). Some of these Q1/Q2 Kits have been
sitting in garages, shops, basements, some still in boxes, etc. for 25+
years.
Making the 51% Rule is not hard in any aircraft, your building, and
assembling the kit from parts. You don't have to actually build 51% of the
Parts. It's more like you have to assemble 51% of them pre-made parts to make a
Complete Plane. A Q1/Q2 Airframe Kit would be many pre-made parts, that you
would still assemble to make a complete Airframe, then you have to still install
the Engine, Electronics, etc.
I don't think anyone has ever made a Q1/Q2 out of Aluminum. With a CNC
Laser/Water Jet, you could cut out the parts for a complete Airframe fast.
Build Time, is very Important to People, as is the Total Cost.
Personally, I think a Kit should be no more than 250-300hrs to assemble, to
sell well! For a Q1/Q2 that takes Molds.
Just My Opinion
Rich Gillen
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Rich Gillen
If you base your Future Business needs on 20 year old data/thinking, your
probably Doomed to begin with. They also was only looking at the USA Pop
for that data. There is 225 other Countries in this Big World today, they say
about 8 Billion People, and these Manufactures can't sell all the Aircraft
they can probably make (50-150) in a year. I say B-S.
Just the USA Population alone has grown by 1-2% almost every year since
1911.
Pop 1911 = 93,863,000
Pop 2010 = 310,232,863
Pop 2015 = 321,230,000
"In the year 1900 the World Population was 1.6 billion. The
world population has grown tremendously over the past two thousand years. In
1999, the world population passed the six billion mark." That was 16 years ago
fellows.
The United States Census Bureau
estimates that the world population exceeded 7 billion on March 12, 2012.
According to a separate estimate by the United Nations Population Fund, it
reached this milestone on October 31, 2011.
Current World Population----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of July 6, 2015, the United
States has a total resident population of 321,230,000, making it the third most
populous country in the world.
The EAA has, and will Shrink, as the
old time hard core supporters die off, account they have forgotten their Roots,
the home built/Kitplane! I stopped supporting them 12+ years ago, when I saw the
writing on the wall back then. They even wanted to close the Ultralight Area at
Oshkosh just a few years ago. As I did also with the NRA, when they caved
into the Assault Rifle Bill, and also stopped supporting the Machine Gun, and
Suppressor People.
No, these Manufactures will have
to Open New Markets/Sales around the World, if they want to survive. High
CEO/Managers Salaries is what is killing a lot of USA Companies today, besides
just their poor Management skills!
The World Kitplane Market has
dropped to over half, what it was 25 years ago! From 750+ per Kitplane Mag, in
the World to about 350 today. I suggest you go visit 4-5 of these different
Kitplane Manufactures left today, then you will see, Why, they will probably not
be around in 10-15 years also. Vans (RV Line) is probably one of the most
profitable Kitplane Manufactures in the World, close to 8000 built, I also
believe the M-Square Breeze is also around the 7000 mark. Look at their Web
Pages, compared to some of these other manufactures, still in Business, for
now.
Big Airlines here, seek out Military
Pilots, who already have 3000-3500hrs of Flying Time. Since they raised the age
to 65, less are retiring. After 911, Airline Employee's all took a Pay Cut,
except Management! Pilot's took the biggest Pay Cut. Today 2015, my younger
brother has finally got back what he lost after 911, with a small Pay Raise. He
fly's for United.
So how ever you want to crunch these
Numbers, if you want to Sell Something, first you have to make a good Product,
then Price it Right, then Market it right, and offer Good Service, if you want
to sell it!
You do have to shop around (World)
also, for All of your Parts to make anything (Airframe Kit). Just the other day,
I looked at some Prices here(USA) for a Rotax 6206 Crank Bearings $55 each
+ Shipping. I can order it for $6 each in a (25) pack with Free Shipping from
China. The Bearings are made in Germany(FAG) best Crank Bearings you can use.
Each Crank use's (6) Bearings total, (4) 6206 and (2) 6207. Just 4 (6206) $55
x 4 = $220, $6 x 4 = $24. $24 vs $220. So you can see, a little
shopping for just Parts can save you money.
Different Rotax Crank Bearings
used.
6205 = $47.50
6206 = $55.00
6207 = $70.00
6306 = $65.00
Just My Opinion
Rich Gillen
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HAROLD DIRKS
toggle quoted messageShow quoted text
Richard,
You sound like you are dreaming of Terrafuga's latest dream. Go here to see
it in action:
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JMasal@...
tHANKS For the "reality" check guys.
toggle quoted messageShow quoted text
But I'me gonna git a big bag of popcorn, sit bac andenjoy the show.
-----Original Message----- From: 'richard@...' richard@... [Q-LIST] To: Q-LIST Sent: Wed, Aug 12, 2015 2:24 pm Subject: [Q-LIST] Re: What ever happened to the new Q2/Q200 kit
The last time I looked the world's population has just hit 8 billion. It's increasing isn't it. What is decreasing is the amount of people who want to build a special aircraft, and prefer one that is an off the shelf kit, which bolts together in 400 hours, does 80 miles to the gallon 2 up, and can land and take off safely from a small farm field, especially in UK, where successive administrations have allowed small business or public airfields to be put to housing. My TriQ is a beautiful aircraft but is not practical for everyday flying.There are so many more utility designs these days, and ones that I can fly from strips 15 miles away instead of 60 miles away. It's a real shame, but it's reality.
Richard Thomson
UK.
Sent from my HTC
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Rich Gillen
Richard:
Each Country has it's own Rules for Airplanes & Pilots, and the amount
of Airports where Q1/Q2 can fly out of. Here in the USA, (1) of the other 225 in
the World, last I new, there was 7000+ Paved Airports, about 2000+ Grass
Airports, and many private airstrips.
I do agree, People want a Fast Build Kit today, less than 500hrs to
build. People have always wanted that. So WHY, isn't these Manufactures giving
them that Option's? People, always want more HP, more Speed.
I believe the Q1 with a 22hp engine did like 110+mph, the Q200 with a 100hp
engine does 160+mph. The Q1, has had everything from a 22hp Onan, to a Skidoo
583(97hp at 7750rpms). Nobody, really post the Speed Numbers with those many
different engines used on these planes. You can adapt about any plane to Floats,
Tundra Tires, for nice Grass Mowed fields. These both, have a high Stall Speed,
so no rough tall grass type field landings. Some People, adapt to their
environment, and land on a country road out front of their house if possible,
and then just pull in their driveway to their hanger, not legal, but they live
in remote area's.
For what you want, a T-Bird I&II, or Challenger, Titian, Kolb, and a
few others, would meet your Spec's. Except, I doubt you will find many engines
in the World that does "80 miles to the gallon". A Rotax 277(26hp) burns
2.0gph.
Sounds more like you want an Ultralight Type Aircraft, rather than a
Performance, cross country Type Airplane.
What is the longest flight you have made in your TRI-Q? What Engine do you
have on it? What is your Max Distance you can fly, with a full tank, and a
reserve?
I don't know where in the UK you live, so I just used Derby, UK as the
center. It looks like in 2hrs at just 100mph, you can go about anywhere in your
country(UK), and even some near by countries, 3hrs get's you into many other
Countries in Europe. Map attached.
Rich
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